US dollar maintained its bearish trend in July, driven by political turmoil in the United States, sluggish inflation, the downgrade of the growth outlook for the United States by the International Monetary Fund, and doubts that the Federal Reserve will be able to continued monetary tightening, especially after the dovish policy statement. Conversely, the euro was strong, supported by hawkishness of the policy minutes released by the European Central Bank at the start of the month and the policy statement that accompanied the July meeting. The general optimism for the future of the eurozone was also helping the currency. The Great Britain pound was relatively firm in July, which was surprising considering persisting concerns about the Brexit. The month started poorly for the currency as basically all macroeconomic reports were bad, followed by weak inflation data. The employment report, though, was positive. The IMF downgraded the outlook for Britain's growth as well, but that did not deter traders from the currency as they were betting on monetary tightening from the Bank of England in the foreseeable future. The Japanese yen was mixed even as Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan Governor, reiterated commitment to stimulus. The BoJ revised its growth outlook up but inflation forecast down. The Swiss franc was extremely weak last month as traders were seeking assets associated with high yield, not with safety. In contrast, the Australian dollar was very firm even as the outlook for monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia was constantly changing. At first, it was hurt by the dovish policy statement. Policy minutes released later, on the other hand, were considered hawkish by market participants, who thought that the report was signaling about an interest rate hike. Yet comments from central bank's officials dashed such hopes. June started very well for the Canadian dollar thanks to favorable employment data and the interest rate hike expectations. And indeed, the Bank of Canada raised its main rate, and it was not a "dovish hike" as some traders had thought it would be. The rally of crude oil prices added to the bullish momentum of the loonie. Gold demonstrated strong performance in July, rallying mostly on the back of the weak US dollar, but also gaining some support from the risk aversion due to the tensions between North Korea and the USA. |
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