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EarnForex.com Monthly Newsletter
*February 5, 2014*
Welcome to the latest issue of EarnForex.com newsletter — February
2014.
In this issue of EarnForex.com newsletter I will remind you about the
most important Forex-related events of the last month and will also
show you the list of the site's latest updates.
*
EDITORIAL: Understanding Non-Farm Payrolls*
Non-farm payrolls are rightfully considered one of the most powerful
fundamental signals in Forex trading. Normally, released on the first
Friday of the month following the reported one, it gives a rather
clear picture of the employment situation in US.
Understanding the following myths about non-farm payrolls will help
you:
/ADP Employment report is a good estimator for the next non-farm
payrolls release./ In fact, it is not. It is rarely even correlated
with NFP numbers. The best advice is to ignore the ADP data release.
/High NFP is good for USD; low NFP is bad for USD./ It does not work
that way. Normally, NFP better than forecast should be
dollar-positive, or worse than forecasts should be dollar-negative.
However big surprises sometimes trigger a switch in the risk-hunger
and risk-aversion modes of the market, which can push USD down on good
NFP release or up on a bad one.
/Watch for initial market reaction following NFP release and trade in
that direction./ It is a very bad idea, as the price can change its
direction several times following the release.
/Currency pair doesn't matter when trading non-farm payrolls./ While
it may seem that any USD pair will work, traditionally, it is EUR/USD
that shows the biggest reaction as the most traded and most
speculative of the currency pairs.
/My broker can offer normal execution during the NFP release./ In
reality, you should expect significant slippage when entering
positions and on stop-loss/take-profit execution.
In short, stick to a low-spread currency pair (preferably EUR/USD) and
try to set up pending orders prior to the non-farm payrolls report
release if you want to profit from it.
The next release is due on Friday, February 7. The expected value is
175k new jobs, following 74k reported a month earlier. The market is
hoping for big positive increase in payrolls and hence it is very easy
to get disappointed. Any number lower than the consensus forecast may
trigger a jump in EUR/USD. On the other hand, a better-than-expected
NFP number will push EUR/USD down, but traders should understand that
with the expectation set as high, it is very unlikely for the actual
release to come out even higher.
*
Overview of the major currency pairs' performance in January*
*EUR/USD* — traded in a widening descending channel and ended the
month significantly lower than it had started. It was at the maximum
at 1.3753 on January 2, at its minimum at 1.3479 on January 31,
finishing the month at 1.3485.
*GBP/USD* — posted a U-pattern followed by a half-way correction.
The highest monthly rate was at 1.6668 on January 24, while the lowest
— at 1.6309 on January 17. GBP/USD finished January trading at
1.6437.
*USD/JPY* — corrected down following 2013 rally. The pair rose to as
high as 105.44 on January 2, reaching a bottom at 101.77 on January 27
and closing the month with the 101.97 rate.
*EUR/JPY* — fell even more sharply than USD/JPY. The monthly high
was at 144.85 on January 2, the monthly low — at 137.50 on January
31. Trading ended at 137.57 for this currency pair.
*GBP/JPY* — formed a rough and somewhat down-sloped descending
triangle in January. The maximum level for this pair was 174.74 on
January 2, while the minimum — 167.54 on January 31. The month's
trading ended at 167.62 for GBP/JPY.
*
Fundamental background of the past month*
January was a good month for the US dollar, which acted opposite to
expectations
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/08/forecast-dollar-2014/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
- rising against the euro and the Great Britain pound, but falling
against the Japanese yen. The major reason for the dollar's strength
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/30/dollar-demonstrates-strength-help-qe-tapering/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
was quantitative easing tapering
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/30/fed-tapers-dollars-gains-limited/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
by the Federal Reserve.
Conversely, the euro experienced weakness during the past month. The
currency softened at the beginning of the year as Latvia joined the
currency union
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/01/euro-lower-latvia-joins-currency-union/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
. The European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/09/euro-struggles-following-ecb-decision/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
, as was expected
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/11/forecast-euro-2014/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
, resulting in weakness of the euro, which persisted throughout the
month
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/31/euro-struggles-economy-remains-static/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
The Great Britain pound was mostly soft in January. The currency
attempted to rally
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/14/uk-pounds-reaches-boe-target-pound/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
as inflation reached the central bank's target, but pulled back after
Governor Mark Carney said
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/24/sterling-react-poorly-carneys-speech/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
that he is not going to raise interest rates prematurely.
At first, it did not look like January would be a good month for the
Japanese yen, especially after the Bank of Japan kept monetary
stimulus in place
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/22/yen-drops-boj-maintains-stimulus-losses-limited/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
. Yet risk aversion kicked in
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/25/fear-fx-market-helps-yen-become-top-performer/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
later, lifting the Japanese currency higher. The short-lived surge of
risk appetite
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/29/yen-slides-third-session-turkeys-central-bank-suprises/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
did not prevent the yen from ending the month on a strong note
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/02/01/yen-ends-january-strong-note/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
The Canadian dollar sank
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/25/week-cad-reaches-record-low-several-months/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
over January on prospects of an interest rate cut from the Bank of
Canada. The Australian dollar also performed poor amid negative
fundamentals
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/18/audusd-reaches-multi-year-low-week/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
. The New Zealand dollar was rather soft too as the Reserve Bank of
New Zealand delayed
<http://www.topforexnews.com/2014/01/30/nz-dollar-weaker-rbnz-delays-monetary-tightening/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
the planned monetary tightening.
Gold was rising
<http://www.commodityblog.com/wti-crude-rises-despite-growing-stockpiles-gold-advances/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
for the most part of January but trimmed gains
<http://www.commodityblog.com/gold-heads-to-weekly-loss-rubber-jumps-on-signs-of-growth/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
on the last week of the month.
*
Interest rate changes in January*
Country
Old Rate
Change
New Rate
*Brazil*
10.00%
+0.50%
10.50%
*Hungary*
3.00%
-0.15%
2.85%
*Republic of India*
8.75%
+0.25%
9.00%
*Romania*
4.00%
-0.25%
3.75%
*South Africa*
5.00%
+0.50%
5.50%
*Turkey*
7.75%
+4.25%
12.00%
*
Top 5 Forex brokers of the last month*
The top 5 Forex brokers, as reviewed by the visitors of EarnForex.com
<http://www.earnforex.com/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
are the following:
FreshForex
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/FreshForex?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
— 10
GAINSY
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/GAINSY?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
— 10
Tradenext
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/Tradenext?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
— 10
3TG Brokers
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/3TGBrokers?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
— 10
ProCFD
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/ProCFD?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
— 10
To qualify for the position in this list, a Forex broker should have
at least 3 qualified reviews. Do not forget to review your favorite
broker
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
if you have not done so already.
*
Forex e-books*
No new Forex books have been published on EarnForex.com since
the last issue of the newsletter, but you can always browse the
previously
uploaded books
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-e-books/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
*
Forex articles*
No new Forex articles have been published on EarnForex.com since
the last issue of the newsletter, but you can always browse the
previously
uploaded articles
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-articles?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
*
Forex brokers*
One new Forex broker has been added to EarnForex.com since the
last issue of the newsletter:
FIPFX GLOBAL
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/FIPFXGLOBAL?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
— an international branch of FIPFX
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/FIPFX?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
without NFA supervision and with more attractive trading conditions.
You can always view our full
list of Forex brokers
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
*
Forex VPS providers*
No new Forex VPS providers have been added to EarnForex.com
since the last issue of the newsletter, but you can always browse the
previously
added VPS companies
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-vps-hosting?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
*
MetaTrader indicators*
No new MetaTrader indicators have been added to EarnForex.com
since the last issue of the newsletter, but you can always view the
previously
uploaded
Forex indicators
<http://www.earnforex.com/metatrader-indicators?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
*
MetaTrader expert advisors*
No new expert advisors have been added to EarnForex.com since
the last newsletter issue, but you can always browse the previously
added
MetaTrader EAs
<http://www.earnforex.com/metatrader-expert-advisors/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
*
Forex polls*
Two new polls have been posted in the EarnForex blog
<http://www.earnforex.com/blog/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
:
Did You Make Any Profit in Forex in 2013?
<http://www.earnforex.com/blog/did-you-make-any-profit-in-forex-in-2013/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
Which Central Bank Do You Trust Most?
<http://www.earnforex.com/blog/most-credible-central-bank/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
You can also browse the full list of
Forex polls
<http://www.earnforex.com/blog/tag/forex-poll/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
from
EarnForex.com.
*
Forex strategies*
No new Forex strategies have been added to EarnForex.com since
the last issue of the newsletter, but you can always browse the
previously added
Forex strategies
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-strategy/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
*
Forum*
Top 5 hot topics on EarnForex
Forum
<http://www.earnforex.com/forum/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
started in January:
Can we trust a broker based on regulation
<http://www.earnforex.com/forum/f4/can-we-trust-broker-based-regulation-16373/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
Daily Market News By FXNET
<http://www.earnforex.com/forum/f5/daily-market-news-fxnet-16393/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
Are there any qualifications in Forex?
<http://www.earnforex.com/forum/f4/there-any-qualifications-forex-16376/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
When in doubt, stay out
<http://www.earnforex.com/forum/f4/when-doubt-stay-out-16375/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
Please recommend good binary broker
<http://www.earnforex.com/forum/f10/please-recommend-good-binary-broker-16449/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
*
Forex industry news*
There were the following important Forex industry news since the
last issue of the newsletter:
Alpari
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/Alpari?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
fined $50,000 by NFA <>
for failure to keep accurate records, failure to timely report trade
data and failure to
supervise back in June 2013. It is worth mentioning that Alpari has
moved out of US market in September 2013 and sold its client base to
FXCM
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/FXCM?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
eToro
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/eToro?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
and
UFXMarkets
<http://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers/UFXMarkets?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
launched live Bitcoin trading via a contract for difference (CFD).
MetaQuotes <http://www.metaquotes.net/>
updated <http://forum.mql4.com/60555>
its MetaTrader 4 platform to
Build
600
<http://www.earnforex.com/blog/metatrader-4-build-600-is-metatrader-5-in-disguise/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
, introducing MQL4-MQL5 compatibility and integrated product market.
*
Until the next newsletter issue!*
That's all for the February issue of the EarnForex.com
newsletter. If you have questions, comments or just want to see
something else
in the next monthly issue, please let us know
<http://www.earnforex.com/contact?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=n201402>
.
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